“Half of U.S. likely to contract swine flu, White House warns.” (USA Today).
The newspaper headlines are frightening. The White House is warning that the Swine Flu (technically labeled the “2009-H1N1” influenza virus) could infect 150 million Americans, lead to as many as 1.8 million U.S. hospitalizations, send as many as 300,000 patients to Intensive Care Units and cause 30,000 to 90,000 deaths in the U.S., killing mostly children and young adults.
Perhaps even more frightening is the fact that the White House throws out these terrifying numbers and then tells you that there is nothing you can do except wash your hands frequently, cover your cough, stay home if you get a fever, and get a vaccine when it becomes available, if there is enough to go around.
“Much Ado about Nothing”
Many experts believe that the White House Report is grossly overstating the numbers on purpose. In fact, the report itself states, “that the epidemic could: produce infection of 30–50% of the U.S. population this fall and winter,” but then immediately states that it would only produce “symptoms in approximately 20–40% of the population.” That means that as many as 30 million infected Americans will never even know that they were infected with the flu because their symptoms will be so mild.
The U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) seems to be down playing the dire predictions released by the President. A press officer for the CDC, speaking carefully to avoid a feud with the White House press office, said, “Look, if the virus keeps behaving the way it is now, I don’t think anyone here expects anything like 90,000 deaths.” (See Agency Urges Caution on Estimates of Swine Flu)
Scare Tactics
The Swine flu fears produced by the White House projections appear to be “Much Ado About Nothing” except to create enough fear to scare at least 120 million Americans into getting vaccinated. So far the Swine flu has been milder than most typical flu strains. It has infected only 1 million Americans vs the usual 20 million; hospitalized only 9,079 vs the usual 200,000; and killed only 593 Americans vs the usual 36,000 annually.
As of August 29, 2009, there have been only 38,112 cases of the 2009-H1N1 flu confirmed by the CDC and 593 deaths, yielding a death rate of 1.5% of confirmed cases. The CDC has reported that the actual number of 2009-H1N1 flu cases is at least 1 million, which means the most accurate death rate is approximately 0.059%, or less than 1/10th of 1%.
Of the 6,410 suspected influenza cases tested by the CDC in the last week of August, 2009, only 17.3% were actually found to be infected with Influenza and of that group, only 68% were infected with the 2009-H1N1 Swine flu virus. The vast majority of suspected cases (82.7%) were found to be caused by the common cold virus.
Risk to Children Overstated
On Sept 4, 2009, the CDC published its first analysis of children who have died from the new 2009-H1N1 flu virus. Previous media reports, including the White House Report, have indicated that children and young adults were at much higher risk from Swine flu than the seasonal flu. The analysis shows that only 8% of the deaths due to the Swine flu were among children.
According to the CDC report, through August 8, 2007, a total of 477 people, including 40 children (8% of the total) have died from the 2009-H1N1 flu since it emerged in the United States in April. An analysis of 36 of the children’s deaths found that most (81%) were age 5 or older, and most of them (67%) had high-risk nervous system developmental disorders, including epilepsy, cerebral palsy, muscular dystrophy and others.
Your Own Immune System is Your Best Defense
The truth is that in the worst epidemics of the world, only 20% of the population develops symptoms and only 1% or less of that group dies. Your best defense against the flu is your own immune system. The typical seasonal flu infects only 5-20% of the population (15-60 million Americans). That means that 80-95% of the population escapes untouched (240 to 285 million Americans) every year.
The take home message is that there is no need to panic. Your own immune system is the key to preventing the flu. The White House Report is intended to scare half of all Americans into getting the flu vaccines in order to increase what vaccination specialists call “herd immunity.” The mass vaccination program may have started with good intentions, but it is associated with many harmful side effects that I believe will be much more detrimental than the flu virus itself.
To read Dr. Hansen’s article: Should You Get the Swine Flu Vaccine? click here.
To read Dr. Hansen’s article: The Top Ten Natural Treatment Alternatives for the Flu, click here.